Independent macro research
Gold · Silver · Oil
Macro Metals
Monitor
Topic file

Gold

Analysis connected to gold and the forces around it.

Cross-asset dashboard

Macro Indicators

Market quotes refresh every 15 minutes; real yields cache for up to 6 hours and update when FRED publishes new daily data.

Real Interest Rates

Current
2.60%
Bearishon Gold

Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

Dollar Index (DXY)

Current
102.28
Bearishon Gold

A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-priced precious metals.

Gold / S&P Ratio

Current
0.552
5-year average0.497
Bullishon Gold

Gold is outperforming equities versus its five-year relationship.

Gold / Oil Ratio

Current
44.86
5-year average36.31
Bullishon Gold

Gold buys more oil than its five-year average, showing relative strength.

Gold / Silver Ratio

Current
78.45
Historical average81.52
Neutralon Gold

The gold-to-silver relationship is near its historical average.

Monetary Stress Index

Current
26/100
0Moderate100
Bearishon Gold

A weighted score from three-month gold momentum, real-rate direction, and dollar direction.

Sources: U.S. Treasury/FRED and Yahoo Finance futures/index data. Quotes may be delayed; ratios use aligned weekly closes.

Methodology, formulas & disclaimer

How to read Gold indicators

Gold is treated as a monetary asset. Falling 10-year real yields and a weaker U.S. dollar are generally supportive. Gold/S&P compares gold with equities; Gold/Oil estimates how many oil barrels one ounce of gold can buy; Gold/Silver shows gold's relative strength against silver. These relationships provide context, not forecasts.

Sampling and formulas

Ratios use aligned weekly closing prices from the latest five-year history. Each historical average is the arithmetic mean of the available aligned weekly ratios. Current ratios use the latest available quotes.

Trends compare the latest value with the closest available observation from 90 calendar days earlier. Real rates are measured in percentage points; DXY and ratios use percentage change.

For each input, component = clamp(50 + 50 × adjusted 90-day change / scale, 0, 100). Scales: gold momentum 12%, falling real rates 0.75 percentage points, falling DXY 5%. MSI = round(0.40 × gold + 0.35 × real rates + 0.25 × DXY). Bands: <25 Low, <50 Moderate, <75 Elevated, otherwise High.

Data sources and refresh

Yahoo Finance chart data: GC=F (gold futures), SI=F (silver futures), CL=F (WTI crude futures), DX-Y.NYB (U.S. Dollar Index), and ^GSPC (S&P 500). Real rates use FRED DFII10, the 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security yield. Yahoo current quotes/history are cached for 15 minutes; FRED observations are cached for 6 hours and are published daily. Futures and index quotes may be delayed, and the continuous futures series are not spot prices.

Legal disclaimer

For informational and educational purposes only. This material is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or revised; indicator interpretations are heuristic and can be wrong. Do your own research and consult a qualified professional. Past performance does not guarantee future results.